Thursday, May 2, 2019

the math behind hofstadter's law

Erik had a thought- or rather, a tweet:
I suspect devs are actually decent at estimating the *median* time to complete a task. Planning is hard because they suck at the *average*.
He then went on to explain Why software projects take longer than you think – a statistical model.

Very very roughly, it's the (almost predictable) outliers that will mess up your plan - easy stuff stays more or less easy, but the hard stuff gulps up all the time.

No comments:

Post a Comment